The Big Question: Predictions for 2009

The Learning Circuits Blog Big Question for January asks what are your challenges, plans and predictions for 2009?  Here are my offerings:

Challenges

Keeping innovation and change on the agenda when all anyone's interested in is survival.

Keeping the income flowing in when spending on external contractors could take a hit.

Plans

I want to finish my project Learning in all Contexts, which has been on the back burner too long. I also want to write a short and really accessible book on learning technology for trainers.

I have all sorts of other projects and plans, but in the end the lot of a consultant is to do what clients pay you to do. When there are days left over you do your own thing.

Predictions

Of all the forces for change (Gen Y, new thinking about learning, pressures to respond quickly to needs, new tools, new devices, etc.) only one will matter and that is surviving the downturn.

Most of the cool stuff (informal learning, social media, games and sims, mobile learning) will have to stay on the back burner, because management will simply not be interested in experimenting. There will be enough exceptions to keep those already active in these fields going, but no big shift in corporate learning practice.

Classroom training will be decimated. Many classroom trainers will lose their jobs, become freelance and find that there is not enough work to go round, causing daily rates to tumble.

Many organisations will look to e-learning to keep the essential formal training going, but mainly out of the desire to save costs. This will keep some internal trainers (those who have embraced technology), external developers and rapid tool suppliers busy, although everyone will be looking for the cheapest and the quickest.

We could see a big increase in the use of synchronous e-learning using web conferencing, primarily to save travel costs.

Governments will run up huge deficits to stimulate the economy and so the public sector may not be hit as hard in the short term. However, in a few years' time, as the private sector recovers, the deficits will have to be repaid and there could be heavy cutbacks in public spending. So, those working in the public sector should use this time to adjust to a very different future.

Those learning and development departments that are proactive in helping their organisations respond to the crisis will be rewarded by being allowed to survive. The sitting ducks will be shot.

Now I need cheering up.